The second in a series of disturbingly thought-out, fictional news articles about my fantasy football team.
Calculating the odds
Coming into week 13, the Squirrels had a simple formula for success. Win out and hope for a couple of breaks. The first part was handled easily with a 77-38 victory over the rival Wailing Wallabys, but one major break went against the Squirrels as Shaun Alexander rattled off a 32 yard TD late in the Monday night game, leading 6th place WVU to a victory over Thomas* Nightmares. Though tied in record, WVU holds a 48 point lead over the Squirrels and the two teams do not play again this season.
What could have been a simple playoff scenario has suddenly become much more complex as the Squirrels sit in 7th place, looking to leapfrog three teams in just two weeks. There is still hope for the team, however. Like a poker player moving all-in, the Rabid Squirrels are counting their *outs* with the teams ahead of them. From worst to first, here are the teams in question.
6. WVU. SITUATION: This is perhaps the most troubling team, as they hold a significant points lead over the Squirrels. In order for the hometown team to pass them, WVU must lose to either the fading niners or the 9th place Freezeboys. THE SKINNY: The chances are slim, but the Squirrels still have a few more outs even if WVU makes the playoffs.
5. Bucs. SITUATION: At 6-6-1, the Bucs pose another threat to the Squirrels* chances. However, their game against top-ranked WV Colts in week 15 gives us hope that they will get a critical loss and allow the Squirrels to pass them. THE SKINNY: One of those situations where the Squirrels have to hope for good things from others. But with the Colts riding high, the chances are excellent that the Bucs can be leapfrogged at the wire.
4. WV Rattlesnakes. SITUATION: The Snakes are also 6-6-1, but the Squirrels play them in week 15. If they can pull off that victory, they*ll pass them. THE SKINNY: As simple as it gets. Win and you*re in.
3. Niners. SITUATION: At 8-5, the Niners would appear to be firmly in the top bracket. They will play a major role in the last two regular season games, as a victory by them over WVU this week would help the Squirrels* immensely. Should they LOSE to WVU, then Rabid Squirrels fans will be rooting for the Niners to drop the final game in week 15. THE SKINNY: Root, root root for the Niners, unless they lose this week. Then it*s root, root root for the last place Nightmares to pull off the unlikely upset. If the Niners lose twice, two victories by the Squirrels will give them a solid chance to pass the third place team.
2. Purple Pride. SITUATION: Also 8-5, the second-place Pride hold a 22 point edge over the Squirrels but can still be caught due to some fortuitous scheduling. The Squirrels and Pride match up in a major clash this week, and in week 15 the rival Wallabys will square off against the Pride. There*s a chance, albeit at somewhat long odds, that the Pride will drop both games, giving the Squirrels a chance. THE SKINNY: Win two, hope the Pride lose two and also pick up 23 points in the meantime? It*s a longshot, but possible.
1. WV Colts. SITUATION: At 9-4, the Colts have sewn up a playoff spot. THE SKINNY: Rooting for the Colts has become a major pastime around Squirrels* HQ, as they factor into one of the critical playoff scenarios. If the Squirrels make the top bracket, they will likely face the Colts in the first game. The two teams split the season series, with the Rabid Squirrels taking the week 11 matchup by a score of 99-75.
Conclusions are tough to come by
Two of the teams are fairly straighforward: The Colts beat the bucs and the Squirrels win out, including that week 15 win over the Rattlesnakes. That will catapult the Squirrels into 5th place with an 8-7 record. Assuming this happens, then one of the following three must occur:
1. The Niners beat WVU in week 14.
2. The Niners lose to WVU in week 14 and to Thomas* Nightmares in week 15
3. Purple Pride loses to the Wailing Wallabys in week 15 and the Squirrels pick up at least 23 points in total scoring on the Pride in the last two games.
What are the odds? It*s not easy to calculate them, but they*re certainly better than they were three weeks ago when the Squirrels were languishing in 9th place and held a 3-7 record. I wouldn*t buy those playoff tickets just yet, but they*re beginning to look a lot more tempting.